If a government initiates National E-Markets, will their electorate embrace it? Comparison with other official schemes suggests they will. Britain’s National Lottery for instance attracted 72% of the population to play in its first month.
There are reasons to spurn NEMs: it entails unfamiliar processes and it has to store data on your transactions (to protect counterparties). But reasons to be an adopter include: it’s likely to be a faster, cheaper, safer way to purchase a lot of services and it can turn spare time or unused assets into cash.
Past government schemes
National E-Markets relies on government. See our Is there another way? section for more on this. It’s worth looking at takeup of some comparable official projects. Here are three key examples from the UK:
All were spectacularly successful. For privacy campaigners, the Oyster Card caused most concern. A swipe card for ticketless travel on London’s buses and trains, it informs the syndicate of firms running the project of every journey made by a user. Registration for an Oyster costs £3 and requires full name and address, however it makes travelling cheaper. Four years after its introduction 10 million cards had been issued and 80% of London’s public transport journeys were stored in the Oyster database.
Campaigners against the “socialised medicine” of Britain’s National Health Service made much of the centralised record keeping it would require. That didn’t stop 75% of the population registering in its first five weeks. It is hard to find a non-coercive, government backed scheme, with a clear value proposition that has been resisted by the populace.
Embraced gingerly
There could be a tidal wave of interest in NEMs. But it’s equally likely users will start this new form of activity warily. A typical user may register at his local Post Office prompted by media coverage of the forthcoming launch. He may browse but not buy for a while and then, tentatively, book a low risk purchase such as someone to cut his childrens' hair at home.
Assuming the home trim is a success, he might one evening forgo the Domino’s Pizza website to book a takeaway meal cooked by a neighbour in their kitchen and delivered to his door by a local. If the user experience continues to be good he may
risk selling, perhaps putting his electric drill into the market on evenings he’s at home but specifying it’s only to be displayed to potential buyers with a track record of reliable hires and returns behind them.
No-one would be expected to move to a wholesale NEMs lifestyle. It's like any other public utility: there to be used to the extent anyone wishes.